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Migration in birds is highly labile and is believed to have developed independently in many avian lineages. While it is agreed that the behavioral and physiological aptations necessary for migration are under genetic control, some authors have argued that no genetic change is necessary for migratory behavior to develop in a sedentary species because the genetic framework for migratory behavior exists in nearly all avian lineages. This explains the rapid appearance of migratory behavior after the most recent glacial maximum. Theoretical analyses show that detours that increase flight distance by up to 20% will often be aptive on aerodynamic grounds – a bird that los itself with food to cross a long barrier flies less efficiently. However some species show circuitous migratory routes that reflect historical range expansions and are far from optimal in ecological terms. An example is the migration of continental populations of Swainson's thrush Catharus ustulatus, which fly far east across North America before turning south via Florida to reach northern South America; this route is believed to be the consequence of a range expansion that occurred about 10,000 years ago. Detours may also be caused by differentiald conditions, predation risk, or other factors. Climate change Large scale climatic changes are expected to have an effect on the timing of migration. Studies have shown a variety of effects including timing changes in migration, breeding as well as population declines. Many species have been expanding their range as a likely consequence of climate change. This is sometimes in the of er vagrants becoming established or regular migrants. Ecological effects The migration of birds also aids the movement of other species, including those of ectoparasites such as ticks and lice, which in turn may carry micro-organisms including those of conce rn to human health. Due to the global spre of avian influenza, bird migration has been studied as a possible mechanism of disease transmission, but it has been found not to present a special risk; import of pet and domestic birds is a greater threat. Some viruses that are in birds without lethal effects, such as the West Nile virus may however be spre by migrating birds. Birds may also have a role in the dispersal of propagules of plants and plankton. Some predators take vantage of the concentration of birds during migration. Greater noctule bats feed on nocturnal migrating passerines. Some birds of prey specialize on migrating wers. Study techniques Rars for monitoring bird migration. Kihnu, Estonia.